i think the entire military spending in the U.S. was >650B. It is probably insanely hard to train a robot to walk around an unknown environment, pick clothes up, launder & dry them, and then have the dexterity to fold them. What percentage of people would buy v1 of this in america. A standard shitty top down analysis tries to capture 1% of a market. Here, your absolute max is 1%, likelely 0.01%. So, capturing 1% of the world market of people who could possibly even afford this is 80k people. assume this analysis is terrible, but you get the idea. many countries spend on military/security. This would branch into police dept ect. Obviously, this woud be terrible for humans, but a robonanny is less marketable than a military robot because the tech is there for a military bot but not precise enough to do chores, which aren't super valuable relative to en masse robot manufacturing costs.
I'd assume the problems will be fairly similar. The terminator will have to evolve in an unknown environment, be careful of not hurting civilians (or the wrong army) and will face a deliberately deceptive enemy. Either way there will be a v1, and a v2, and a v3, and it will take a while before it becomes a cheap mainstream product. But the civil use I think has a multiple of the potential.
Now the reality is that it's probably not going to be one or the other, both will advance in parallel and share technologies.
i am totally in agreement that they will largely evolve in paralell. i just think the market op is much higher for mil tech now.
Most technologies are funded and developed in research stage for military applications, internet being one example. your example was (and i assume you mean far future) a super hard problem. terminator was a fully intelligent super being.
i am talking about the development of the class that boston dynamics is/has built. they can run around in open environments and could do recon, supply and very basic defensive or offensive maneuvering.
i think (and could be wrong) the granular dexterity to fold a shirt is super hard. also, training would be non trivial.
i think robots and augmentation will be mil -> commercial -> consumet. and this is happening. soon all 3 will evolve in parallel and converge on apecific applications
