>> I'm guessing if you looked at all the 85% predictions, about 15% of the time the other outcome happened. That's what 85% means, after all.

That's what 85% probability means.

In this context the 85/15% is not a probability - it's a prediction representing the educated guess of a bunch of people about the actual probability.

Which is to say, the probability of people being right or wrong about an event's probability is not the same as the probability of that event.