Was any intelligence agency of the era not incompetent? The GP's assertion of:
> I don't know if that makes him a trustworthy authority on intelligence analysis.
...only really applies if there is someone who is a "trustworthy authority on intelligence analysis."
If everyone is just flailing around, then we may as well listen to the experiences of a person who's been flailing around for the longest time. At least they've made a lot of mistakes you can learn from.
GRU and KGB first directorate. Also Soviet counter intel was orders of magnitude better, it helps when you can roundup anyone you want and brutalize anyone you want any time you want.
Western intel agencies were like children playing against professionals.
Another example is Mossad orders go magnitude better. Can you imagine Americans, British or hell anyone really pulling off Spring of Youth? Consider the depth of intel needed to pull something like that off. Obviously the Yom Kippur war will be mentioned.. thing was warning were passed to Golda Meir.. Israel should have mobilized and struck first but political decision was made it was not really fault of intel.
> I don't know if that makes him a trustworthy authority on intelligence analysis.
...only really applies if there is someone who is a "trustworthy authority on intelligence analysis."
If everyone is just flailing around, then we may as well listen to the experiences of a person who's been flailing around for the longest time. At least they've made a lot of mistakes you can learn from.