I don’t disagree that having tighter bounds for the Drake equation is worth investing time and energy into.
I think we are going to find that the preconditions for life are quite common. The way solar fusion and supernovas work, what atoms are produced, The distribution of material and of those atoms within an accretion ring... if a planet forms at the right distance, then it will have the mix of chemical precursors.
Honestly I suspect the only thing that makes Earth rare is our freakishly large moon. If we can ever prove that life is viable on a timescale of eons on a planet without such huge tidal forces pumping the biosphere, that will be a revelation.
I think we are going to find that the preconditions for life are quite common. The way solar fusion and supernovas work, what atoms are produced, The distribution of material and of those atoms within an accretion ring... if a planet forms at the right distance, then it will have the mix of chemical precursors.
Honestly I suspect the only thing that makes Earth rare is our freakishly large moon. If we can ever prove that life is viable on a timescale of eons on a planet without such huge tidal forces pumping the biosphere, that will be a revelation.