> The difference is that now Google and FB pay way more. More than startups could ever dream of competing with.
Logically speaking, the only way that a company can pay more and still be profitable is if they produce value more efficiently. On a general, macro level.
So, if startup founders cannot even dream of providing either cash or equity (adjusted to risk) comparable to the big-techs, does this mean that startups are no longer the best way for society to become more productive?
I only see if two ways (again at the macro level)
a) Startups are better than BigTech for society economically: so make sure you hire the best-of-the-best, and give them high equity, and later compensation when you have more cash.
b) BigTech is better than startups for society economically: here, the proof is in the pudding, better hires leads to more profits, so hire the best of the best, and just give them mountains of cash.
I feel like we're seeing b) for the last 5 - 6 years.
I don’t think it’s crazy to say that a line of code written at Google will, risk adjusted and averaged across all lines of code written at Google, create more value for society than the risk adjusted and averaged line of code at a random startup.
But in startups averages don’t matter as much - it has power-law style returns, so if you happen to work at an insanely valuable startup those lines of code might be 1,000x as valuable as the average line of code written at Google.
Ergo, if you can/want to play the odds with those kind of risks you go to a startup, even knowing the risk adjusted value is lower (loving your work also matters, and some prefer startups - myself included). If you want a sure thing you go to Google.
Could it be because BigTech, collectively, have created an oligopoly? Perhaps making it easier for startups to compete is another reason for antitrust.
BigTech is insanely big right now. Basically advertising and cloud are humongous cash cows. It’s a good time to work for BigTech and build some safety net.
But then again it’s only Google and FB that pay above the line. Microsoft and Amazon salaries, last I checked were pretty subpar.
A lot of Amazon engineers have done amazingly well over the past 5 years what with the huge run-up in stock prices. This may not continue going forward, but don't underestimate how much bank they've made recently.
My theory (I could be wrong) is that both Google and Facebook and startups trying to emulate them are trying to exclusively hire from the same dozen elite universities. That would explain the salaries.
Or alternatively (and in my mind, more likely), the massive gains coming directly from computer technology has reached its peak. There will never be another new purely "technology" (i.e. where the business is primarily built-on computer software, internet, and/or hardware) company that's as profitable and powerful as Google or FaceBook
There will always be scope for solid good new businesses with big and small margins, but maybe the next FB / Google will be in some other field? Maybe biology or nutrition, maybe quantum physics, who knows. I wish I had some ideas though.
> Logically speaking, the only way that a company can pay more and still be profitable is if they produce value more efficiently. On a general, macro level.
sed 's/produce more value/extract more wealth from dominant positions and regulation then control/'
C) The largest tech companies are receiving windfall profits after a decade of successfully engaging in predatory anti-competitive behavior and regulatory capture.
Logically speaking, the only way that a company can pay more and still be profitable is if they produce value more efficiently. On a general, macro level.
So, if startup founders cannot even dream of providing either cash or equity (adjusted to risk) comparable to the big-techs, does this mean that startups are no longer the best way for society to become more productive?
I only see if two ways (again at the macro level)
a) Startups are better than BigTech for society economically: so make sure you hire the best-of-the-best, and give them high equity, and later compensation when you have more cash.
b) BigTech is better than startups for society economically: here, the proof is in the pudding, better hires leads to more profits, so hire the best of the best, and just give them mountains of cash.
I feel like we're seeing b) for the last 5 - 6 years.