It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means (even though the WHO should have done this weeks ago).
At this point, the only rational thing to do is to try to slow the spread. The good news is that this is a very mild virus, and the vast majority of infected people will have minor symptoms. The fatality rate in Korea is currently 0.6%, and becuase of the comprehensive nature of their testing, this should be considered the upper bound on CFR.
It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means
That's the exact opposite of what the WHO said when they made the pandemic declarations:
"We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic," reads a statement from Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of WHO.[1]
It is not the exact opposite in any way. Your quote does not support your assertion. The truth is that it cannot be contained. It can be slowed down though.
But that's not true. While lethality is estimated at tops 3.6%, the cases requiring hospitalization, including breathing apparatus, etc are quite high, and it WILL overflood the capacity of hospitals in virtually every country that didn't take really really serious precautions, of which there are only a handful.
It will be a big problem both in Europe and in the US, because they are starting to take measures only now.
The vast majority of cases are mild, like a head cold. This is a fact, and has been reported around the world.
You’re arguing about relative hospitalization rates, but that has nothing to do with the discussion here. Mild cases aren’t clogging up ICU wards at all, because they’re quite mild.
I think you mean that this should be considered the goal upper bound on CFR. It's really the lower bound on CFR if you do everything right. If you do everything wrong, like the US is heading towards, you get overloaded health systems, critical shortages, and a 12% CFR or higher.
A 12% CFR is overstating it, but also because we won't be counting the heart attacks that weren't treated, the chemo and radiation therapy that was postponed, and the other health effects.
I think the true measure will be the year over year total mortality.
If we overload our hospitals then CFR will go towards the number of cases that require hospitalization. Which is around 20%. Italy is currently far over hospital capacity and has a CFR today of 8% and rising.
Media and government keep making this claim, yet where are the recovery numbers of people? It drags on for weeks and weeks with no end in sight, correct? And current case fatality rate in Italy is 8%, was 7% this morning, was 6% yesterday - because they do not have hospital resources for the number of serious cases they have.
Serious, critical, and dead outcomes are said to be over 20% of case. This being described as "very low, a very small number" by certain people. That is not a low number at all.
South Korea has been at 0.8% the last two days, and will continue to climb as their open cases resolve one way or another. Plus, didn't they just have a spike in Seoul?
There was a spike in Seoul. Based on their reaction so far, I have a great deal of confidence in their ability to isolate it and react effectively.
Regarding the rise in CFR: it will naturally go up as cases decline, because fatalities stem from a time when the case rate was more rapidly increasing. Korea’s case rate had been declining for several days:
It IS happening in Italy, and it definitely happened in China. The difference is that Japan, South Korea and Singapore have much more powerful nationwide governments. This allowed them to put infection controls in place much earlier than we have in the USA. It remains to be seen where we top out, numbers-wise, vs. hospital capacity.
Here in Washington Governor Inslee declared a State of Emergency, which gives him the power to, among other things, mobilize the National Guard and State militias to establish field hospitals. This is essentially the same reaction China had with regard to building temporary hospitals, but at the state level instead of the federal level. We don't need federal powers, just competent state leadership.
My Bellevue daycare told me today that they probably won’t close unless a worker, kid, or family member gets the virus or...the state shuts them down. Fun times.
I’m ok with their precautions. Not only are they keeping things super clean, but they are giving my kid more hygiene education and training then I could possibly do on my own. For example, washing hands at home is a bit of a struggle because the sink is so high, it is much easier to drill in the habit at daycare, not to mention the peer pressure they apply by making a game out of it for all the kids at once. Child psychology is working for us in this case as long as it remains safe.
The Japanese response has actually been pretty lackluster and haphazard. I'm rather surprised rates there have not been exploding the way they did in Korea, Iran and Italy.
A colleague and myself were pondering this today. He mentioned the 'bow', and general cultural aversion to physical contact. I found that interesting and plausible to consider.
The Japanese response was not so bad when viewed in hindsight.
In comparison, Korea's response was disastrously wrong. Their "Let's test everyone" policy sent lots of people into medical limbo ("We can’t let you go because you're COVID-19 positive ... but meanwhile we have particularly nothing to do for you because you're not that ill") and got their hospitals flooded with mild cases.
Singapore did a top job containing it but it's a small country, one airport..., countries like the US or Italy on the other hand will have a different outcome.
At this point, the only rational thing to do is to try to slow the spread. The good news is that this is a very mild virus, and the vast majority of infected people will have minor symptoms. The fatality rate in Korea is currently 0.6%, and becuase of the comprehensive nature of their testing, this should be considered the upper bound on CFR.