Battery storage is on a steeper price reduction curve than CSP. So, Batteries + PV is on a steeper cost reduction curve than CSP. The cost of tracking PV + batteries is already cheaper than CSP when fitted to the current demand curve.
What’s kept CSP limping along is you can use natural gas to supplement CSP while calling the project green. But from a pure cost basis it’s extremely expensive.
> The cost of tracking PV + batteries is already cheaper than CSP when fitted to the current demand curve.
Really? Any cost stats for that, I'd love to see that.
From Lazard's 2018 [1] and 2020 [2] reports, PV+storage (and only 1-4 hours of storage) is still more expensive for "In-front-of the meter" on the low end compared to CSP for storage on LCOE basis, and 2.5x-4.4x more expensive on the low end, for "Behind-the-meter" applications.
> What’s kept CSP limping along is you can use natural gas to supplement CSP while calling the project green.
And we can also cast light on the manufacturing process behind panels and how the materials are gathered for both panels and batteries… either way improvements are being made all around.
I can see that you are a big fan of solar thermal power, but how do you explain that nobody is building them? If utility generators are rational actors they will pick the best solution. Currently there are numerous PV plants under construction and zero thermal plants in construction or even in planning, in California. Globally, solar thermal has almost come to a complete stop. So, how do you rationalize that it's a great technology but nobody wants it?
> If utility generators are rational actors they will pick the best solution.
People make the same textbook argument for "rational" actors in "markets"… as if all actors are "rational" or agree on what is "rational". As if everyone has access to the same information, as if everyone was equally invested in the same things, as if everyone wanted to protect the same things…
> but how do you explain that nobody is building them?
> Globally, solar thermal has almost come to a complete stop. So, how do you rationalize that it's a great technology but nobody wants it?
Not surprisingly, mostly those in the US… and all but one in of those in California (which is not exactly the paragon of innovation as it was in its heyday…)
Luckily, that doesn't limit what other can explore and pursue :D
Look, panels are great. I've used them in the past in certain applications (esp those that wont require any storage, or have 24/7 access to sunlight like in some regions in space, etc), but storage (1-4 hours? lol) costs are a joke compared CSP offering 24/7 and providing electricity 17.5 hours without direct solar radiation[0].
As for why nobody is building them. I would just point out that nobody is really building full solar with storage either.
That is starting but barley happening.
Utilities need to hit install some renewables and setting up some solar is easy. There likely is already a gas peaker somewhere so no need for storage.
I have not studied CSP in any detail so I can't say, but the reality is rational market actor in the current system does not optimize now for what the theoretical best solution is in 2040. They just need to hit their renewable quotas right now.
Solar combined with “4 hours of battery backup” is 16+h of output.
Suppose you want 1GW of solar 24/7. Well 4h is roughly 1/2 the output of an array over a day. So to get 1GW during the day you need a 2GW solar array. Now your 4h batter is 4h x 2GW = 8GWh. Which means your 4h battery can provide 1GW for 8 hours a day combined with your 2GW array providing 1GW for another 8 hours, and less than 1GW for even longer.
Of course the grid doesn’t actually want X GW 24/7, demand is higher in the day and lower at night. On top of this 4h is sized based on maximum output, you need extra solar to cover cloudy days, but extra arrays also come with more grid storage. Thus at scale 4h battery backed solar arrays can roughly meet all of the grids energy needs.
Another factor is panels can be pointed slightly east or west if you want power earlier or later in the day. The tradeoff is less total output over the day, but with expensive storage and cheap PV it can be more profitable that way.
Why would anyone build solar with storage when the same amount of money is a much better investment for pure solar? There is no surplus of power during the day.
Storage to buy cheap energy and sell it back is also a completely separate enterprise. At the moment it looks like lithium iron phosphate batteries will work the best in the near future since they are the cheapest when taking into account the battery life time.
That's my whole point. We are not yet at a level of penetration where that is needed, so the problem solar concentrate plants solve isn't really solved yet in general.
Esp if one ignores storage costs.
> But at grid scale there are lots of options for storage.
Agreed.
> Pump solar is the obvious option.
Disagree for CSP, but for hydro electric I'd agree.