I found this really interesting. I remember in a previous job, I moved to a lower cost of living city in the same state. My employer told me about about how they were considering lowering my salary because of this. They weren't billing any less for my time. I wasn't any less productive.
I got out of there soon after and found a better place in the new city.
Lets say a 3rd world country, an average salary of SWE is $1000/month. An average salary of a family doctor is $3000/month.
If one day the US/Canada/EU and other 1st world countries manage to finally crack the tax code by outsourcing their work. I can see some things happening:
- SWEs in 1st world countries no longer price-competitive, and they have to either move to 3rd world countries or change career
- People in 3rd world countries no longer want to pursue career as a doctor (and other similarly needed professions like law) (expensive, time consuming, etc) and just pursue SWE jobs
Would this result in people in 3rd world countries have less and less doctors, and people in 3rd world countries would have to go to the 1st world in order to be treated.
This is just a dumb shower thought that I came up with when reading about this. But I wonder what would the implication be for 3rd world countries if we as 1st world manage to crack the outsourcing/tax code.
FWIW, I am a citizen of 3rd world country, now currently reside in the most expensive cities in the US. I also have a familial tie with another 1st world country in Asia that is cheaper than the US. I work as an SWE. I think people like me have the ability to earn US salary and live in 3rd world country, but I'm not sure how other non dual/triple residence would benefit in this type of arrangement.
Outsourcing SWE work to India and Eastern Europe is already very, very common. I don't know if that has had an impact on the availability of doctors, but in Poland, Ukraine or Belarus you'll find most of the IT workers work in outsourcing. The solution for the tax issue is to either have a subsidiary in the low-cost country or buy the outsourcing as a service from a company that's specialized in this arrangement.
I'm in Europe so this is my point of view for the outsourcing recipient countries. I suppose US companies might outsource to Latin America for better time zone overlap.
It is just anecdotal, but friends and colleagues who did successfully outsource part of their development (and it often also fails), didn't reduce their team sizes in western Europe. On the contrary, it usually meant they were more competitive due to lower costs and could grow both offices in size.
Demand for IT around here still seems very far from topping out, and for every team you have outsourced you also need some support, management and engineering at home.
I think it is very hard to measure the total impact of outsourcing. In single company's case, it might seem that competitiveness increases when you start to outsource, but when everyone is onboard with it, it fades into background. I do believe it could make sense for many things, but the cost function is definitely more complex than changing from expensive coders to cheap ones.
It goes different ways in different places, it's very company context dependent.
My anecdote is that the onshore team was reduced via attrition while the offshore team grew significantly.
There was a management imposed maximum onshore:offshore ratio, eventually the onshore dev team started receiving a very small headcount increase again.
> SWEs in 1st world countries no longer price-competitive, and they have to either move to 3rd world countries or change career
In the Netherlands we have a lot of outsourcing to India and a lot of Indian IT workers moving here. We still have many IT job openings and some companies have been moving development back from India, because cultural differences and language barriers some times cost more than the added salary of a local employee.
> People in 3rd world countries no longer want to pursue career as a doctor (and other similarly needed professions like law) (expensive, time consuming, etc) and just pursue SWE jobs
This assumes that people pursue career paths only for the money. Of the doctors I know, most people did not pick that job for the money, they did it because they wanted to be a doctor.
Then there's the fact that people have different interests and natural skill sets. A family member of mine, for example, is a doctor and asked me: "do you really like computers". She would not become an SWE even if it paid double.
That's the rationalization given. But expressed preferences definitely does show that salary drives large numbers of people into professions. With the aging boom, lots of people went into nursing with the expectation of easier money. Tech salaries have sucked oxygen out of the room for people going into maths, physics, and other engineering professions just like FinTech salaries have also sucked talent out of those professions. This has knock-on effects.
Worst case there's fewer doctors, their salaries increase (steady demand + shrinking supply), and the quality of care increases as does wait times and access to care for the broader population worsens. Realistic case, I don't know if it'll impact doctors numbers as the field isn't particularly related - the overlap of people who are equally considering between SW and medicine is small. Maybe in the longer term it has an impact on students making career choices in high school? Hard to say.
This has been a talking point for at least 10 years. Not necessarily the lack of doctors but 3rd world developers out competing domestic ones.
I don’t think it will ever truly happen. Not due to the skill of the workers overseas, but all the other intangible stuff around running a business.
Many places I’ve worked at have outsourced work to overseas, but it’s always in a supplementary fashion. I’ve heard of places that went all in but unless you have superb engineering management onshore, it usually ends very badly.
Assuming that something that sounds entirely plausible and has gigantic upsides for one of two engaging parties with increasingly less downsides for the other party will "never truly happen" has historically been really bad policy when predicting the future.
"Outsourcing" is obviously happening, but the word itself is already a big red flag for last generation think. When it comes to produce, already, no one is truly talking about "outsourcing" to China anymore. That's just where chunk of global production, from highest to lowest quality, happens now.
It would be terribly arrogant to assume that, eventually, this is not going to be the case in the highly sophisticated SWE machinery when quite clearly the gap in innovation and execution is shrinking, and rapidly so.
I think off-shoring (different geo, same company) is easier and more likely to succeed than out-sourcing (to a different company) for software or product development.
Having employees of your company (or a wholly-owned subsidiary) working alongside other local employees is much easier than outsourcing the work to another company in another location. In the latter case, your interests are less aligned than if you were all working for the same company.
It still takes excellent management in both/all geographies and it’s a different style of work, with communications across geos being slower, harder, and more lossy than an in-person whiteboard chat that you might have come to rely on.
> 2. You can move anywhere in the country, like from San Francisco to Nashville, and your compensation won't change
This is confusing. If I work in Nashville is my start compensation the same as if I live in San Francisco? Does San Francisco market-rate determine national salary bands - or are they still different based on location? Cost of living is a thing no matter how you cut it.
If you're remote, cost of living isn't really something Airbnb has to care about. As long as they get good work from you and don't incur office costs in a specific area for you, they can pay you what they believe is a good rate for your services and let you spend it in as cheap (or pricey) of a city as you want.
On a much smaller scale, if I hire someone to edit my book, I probably won't know or care where they live.
As always, it all depends on what you negotiate. They promise not to use the "cost of living" hammer during the negotiation, but as always the most important factor will be your "other offers" hammer.
I believe he's saying it's location independent now. (Most Airbnb employees were in SF, pre-pandemic)
So presumably your location of living just isn't a factor in the compensation determination (which I think is the right way to do this, compensation should be based on market, not chosen geography).
I feel there’s a caveat to this. If this happens in MANGA companies what’s to stop smaller cities from raising the cost of living higher than most of the locals due to having a small amount of high wages/large city types moving in. Idk having a wage adjusted for California prices but living in say the middle of Kansas doesn’t really seem fair and I doubt the local market can pay the same.
> I feel there’s a caveat to this. If this happens in MANGA companies what’s to stop smaller cities from raising the cost of living higher than most of the locals due to having a small amount of high wages/large city types moving in.
If it's a small number of folks, there won't be much impact on anything that doesn't actually have a constrained supply.
For example real estate prices won't be affected much unless the new folks are bidding against each other for the same properties. Without a steady stream of folks coming in, a few sellers immediately getting their asking price will only bump estimated values of the surrounding homes for a while. To get a more permanent RE price bump everyone would have to move into the same neighborhood to get their kids into the same school, or to get the same view, or they all want riverfront property which is in short supply, or something similar.
About the only scenario I can plausibly construct for a real cost increase that actually affects locals (from a small number of well heeled folks moving in) is if all the newcomers move in at the same time and renovate or build their homes simultaneously, then the local cost of construction labor will go up temporarily.
The cost of living in smaller cities is indeed likely to rise as a result of this if they do not build adequate amounts of new housing and commercial real estate as they grow. But this is already happening.
Do you mean that these municipalities would somehow intentionally raise the cost of living? That doesn’t really make sense.
"You have the flexibility to live and work in 170 countries for up to 90 days a year in each location"
I wonder how much of a headache this creates for taxes. One of the biggest factors that keeps me from venturing abroad (and my company from allowing it) in my remote role is the complicated tax situation that arises.
Yeah. 90 days and 180 (sometimes 183) days are the magic numbers in most locations, that treat you as a non-resident or tourist. You still technically owe taxes abroad if you work any period of time abroad, but usually, if there is a formal process, it's much, much simpler for remote work on a short-term visa.
90 days is the magic number for almost all countries for the length of a single tourist visa.
The status quo though, is that almost no governments have legal frameworks for a digital nomad to work legally in a country (as a remote employee) on a 90-day tourist visa. Most look the other way for rich, western tourists not "taking jobs from local residents", if it comes up. They mostly use tourist services and the money which could be taxed never enters a local bank account.
I'm curious how AirBnB ends up solving this. Maybe they'll just contract a big consulting firm with broad international exposure to file taxes for each employee paid abroad. It definitely sounds like they're going to try and figure out how to pay taxes on behalf of employees in up to 170 countries, which, will be interesting to watch.
I think these are historically for people coming into the country and working in the country at an actual brick and mortar place with actual local people.
If a someone is on a trip abroad and gets a call/email from a customer from another country, they are technically working. Would that require a work visa?
How many emails per day would require a work visa?
The world is changing and laws aren't really keeping up.
> If a someone is on a trip abroad and gets a call/email from a customer from another country, they are technically working. Would that require a work visa?
Depends on the country in question of course but many places have different visas:
- Visitor visas: Usually valid for only a couple of days / weeks and geared towards business travelers. These usually allow working in the country.
- Tourist Visas: Usually valid for weeks/months and geared towards tourists.
If you are on the first then working isn't a problem. If you are on the second then (as the name implies) it is kind of assumed that you are a tourist/on vacation and as such won't be doing any work at all.
So to answer your question: If you are on a trip (I interpret this as a couple of days at best) then you won't need a work visa. If you want to stay there for a while though then technically yes.
> The world is changing and laws aren't really keeping up.
Are they though? I think it is fair to say that if you are staying in a country for an extended period of time (longer than a visitor visa) they have a right to tax you.
So if I go abroad for two weeks with my family on a Tourist Visa and I respond to work emails and slack messages during the trip while the family is sleeping or resting after a hard day at the beach.
In your opinion the country would have the right to tax me, since I'm in the country on a Tourist Visa and I'm working?
Yes. That said, i do also believe that taxation would have to be fair. Assuming you spent less than ten hours on these mails in total that would mean you would "earn" so little that most likely you would have not earned enough to have to pay any tax anyways.
Not to mention that in a situation like this they probably wouldn't come after you anyways, but i think they should still have the right to.
Also please note: This stems mostly from my personal opinion of not doing work outside of work hours unless explicitly agreed to. If I am on a vacation i don't do work unless everything back home is collapsing in a pile of flaming garbage.
It is! There's nothing wrong with the current laws, they're just incomplete.
10-20 years ago, someone who wanted to work a bit while traveling, might have taken a low-end local job, or taught English, to make a little income on the side. So, governments decided how they wanted to handle that.
Now, I can have a US income deposited into a US bank account, and decide to temporarily move somewhere for 6-12 months, either with my employers permission, without, or as a freelancer who doesn't need to worry about this.
100% this breaks the rules of a tourist visa, yet it's commonplace. And most governments have no alternative visa. Not because they legitimately want to ban tourists from working for a couple of months from their overpriced AirBnB & spending money like a tourist, but because it's not yet addressed by most travel or immigration frameworks.
Yeah, this is accepting some digital nomad hacks (Florida as your “home” state [or another no income tax state like TN or SD], skating by on tourist visas when traveling, hence the 90 days stipulation) until digital nomad acceptance increases (~46 countries are issuing visas to nomads who have a remote gig from a quick web search).
(not an endorsement of any specific legal or immigration actions)
You’ll definitely want to get ground truth from your org if you should be routing through a friendly residential connection in your org’s jurisdiction while traveling.
The UK too. I was actually banned from the /r/IWantOut subreddit recently for suggesting such even though it's Home Office advice [0] (under Remote Work).
That just implies that the origin country (UK) is ok with someone working remotely. You're still bound to the laws of the destination country. Further, there's a difference between what's easily possible (nobody will easily notice if you work from another country on a tourist visa) vs what is legal.
In Canada, it's expressly legal to travel and work remotely (depending on the work). You can read the Canadian government's definition of work (in the context of requiring a work permit) here: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/co...
> “Work” is defined in the Regulations as an activity for which wages are paid or commission is earned, or that competes directly with activities of Canadian citizens or permanent residents in the Canadian labour market.
The key part is that most remote work doesn't compete directly with the Canadian labor market.
> What kind of activities are not considered to be “work”?
> long distance (by telephone or Internet) work done by a temporary resident whose employer is outside Canada and who is remunerated from outside Canada;
The amount of jobs I didn't get because I refuse to relocate abroad is astonishing, hopefully this will normalize hiring people without relocating them, but I guess it depends on the legal side of it too.
Airbnb’s design to live and work anywhere - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31200650