Shorting is gambling if it isn't informed by knowledge that is legally obtained but not common.
And even then: the kind of leverage that you are playing with has limited upside and unlimited downside so it isn't for everybody. Trading in stocks at least has a limit on the downside (but lacks the degree of leverage that you can get with shorting). The main risk that you've correctly identified is that even the best information will come with caveats around the timeframe, the next being that you can't assume you are dealing with rational actors.
That's why you see parties that short based on relatively unknown information publish that information as loud as they can after they've made their trades so that they can control the timing to some extent.
> That's why you see parties that short based on relatively unknown information publish that information as loud as they can after they've made their trades so that they can control the timing to some extent.
You can just keep shorting it (depending on the timeframe). Just pay whoever gave you the shares a monthly "rent". You are just betting that you will be making a profit that is larger. So if it takes 3 months to go down, you need to be sure that the shares will drop more than the rent you pay in these 3 months.
