Predicting the demise of something does not mean you are incorrect until the day it collapses.
People have criticised Oceangate’s approach to security for years. By your logic I could have turned around to all of them and said “you’re wrong”, up until a few days ago when the CEO got trapped inside a submarine to die. The people who said their safety approach was a ticking time bomb were right all along, it just took time to be proven out.
There's no right or wrong answer to this since failure predictions are logically flawed.
Doomsday cult leaders no longer insist the world will end on a specific day; they insist it will end imminently after a series of vague events. Your skeptics will die of old age before you can ever be proven wrong.
Well, no, failure predictions can either be based on evidence or they can be based on nothing. The doomsday cult is based on nothing, the submarine safety prediction is based on looking at which precautions the company is and is not taking.
I don't think I have been wrong? Like I said, the ability to actually buy stuff with Bitcoin is in decline. I'd change my mind if I saw evidence of increasing Bitcoin adoption in the real economy.
You’re missing the point entirely. Bitcoin will gain usability parity with the US dollar. And bitcoin is a better currency that anything mutable and controlled by governments. Bitcoin is a currency that is not subject to the whims of unpredictable central government financial policies. Bitcoin’s buying power fluctuates because we are still dealing with The Fed monetary policies. In time that will smooth itself out. Aside from violence (US military), what is the US dollar’s features that make it better than bitcoin in any way?
> Aside from violence (US military), what is the US dollar’s features that make it better than bitcoin in any way?
using USD doesn't make me look like a criminal or a scammer.
And it actually work and is useful for everything that isn't shady.
Oh, yeah, almost forgot: I can go to a bank and ask for a loan in USD that I can then use to buy a house, start a business, go on a trip, instead of risking of losing everything the day after. I can repay the loan in comfortable installments, at a predictable rate which won't bankrupt me because I have to acquire bitcoins that are deflationary, so basically in 20 years my debt will have nominally grown up, instead of losing real value, due to inflation, hence costing me less, and whose price is unpredictable.
> So long as there’s demand for contraband, there’s a utility for BTC
Drug money... while that was true at one point, you have to be the stupidest MF'er in this planet to deal with DNM tx with BTC at this point unless you have secure OPSEC (something most who operate DNM couldn't even do, see SR1/2).
The truth is BTC has more usecases than you are lining out, go look at Ukraine's Bitcoin address, that was what was using to fund early escape missions during the attacks of Russia when the central bank failed to operate and imposed liquidity collapse in the onset of the War. This was what led to the realization of United24, the official Ukrainian governments solution for continued fundraising (using not just BTC, but other alts too) for support in other critical needs--like invincibility centers that provide food/water/shelter in these war torn areas.
Want an even longer use case? Go look at Return Alive's BTC address going back a decade now, we as a community have been proving non-lethal aid to Ukraine since the Maidan Revolution in 2013 when the collapse of their currency and capital controls and rapid inflation took over.
Really I can go on, and while I don't deny our past (in fact I'm quite proud of our origins as a means to transfer value freely on the Internet) you are misled to believe it still operates much volume towards those ends these days because of the analytics and monitoring that is being done 24/7 by intelligence agencies and 3rd party affiliates for just this. Hell, I bet there are more scams/hacks by the North Korean cyber military than there is in drug money.
> Drug money... while that was true at one point, you have to be the stupidest MF'er in this planet to deal with DNM tx with BTC at this point unless you have secure OPSEC
Lots of stupid MFers out there. I know quite a few people who have mail ordered their drugs for 10 years using bitcoin. There’s lots of atms that cash in bitcoin out and have dubious identity checks. And there are still in person meetups to swap cash for bitcoin.
Not perfect, but easier than mailing cash or burner PayPal accounts.
This is also like the only use case for bitcoin in the developed world.
> I don't think I have been wrong? Like I said, the ability to actually buy stuff with Bitcoin is in decline. I'd change my mind if I saw evidence of increasing Bitcoin adoption in the real economy.
Based on what evidence exactly? Consider that an entire nation state has since adopted it as its national currency, along the USD in the last 3 years; that means it works in parallel with the USD. Not to mention that merchant adoption, while as you said may be in decline (citation needed), what you have instead is more and more commerce being dealt with on LN: as was always intended due to network bloat.
Listen, I get HN is entirely averse to BItcoin at this point (look at my post histpory, I prove it time and time again it's based on stuborness rather than fact), what I fail to understand is why you persist in this folly in thiking becasue it doesn't work for YOU, you assume no one else has any use for it.
Again, most here who work in tech are not c-level corps or founders so you don't understand very much about the narrow mechanics of day to day because you are not rewarded for doing so, and quite frankly are paid very well for your ignorance on these matters.
But try to understand that if even China has backed off with Hong Kong dealing with BTC, you have to come to terms with the fact that adoption in trackable and metric based analytics are out the window at this point. Exchanges are one way to track transaction volume and that has been as healthy (perhaps more so, I don't know I'm not a trader) than it was 5-6 years ago. I know this because I was there, helping scale this tech and giving it more usecases that even it's most ardent proponents couldn't see and used similar points of view as you are making now (hence USAF and it's MANY forks before that).
You are wrong, and the fact that you can't even admit that possibility is what makes your point even more invalid because you refuse to see a contrary POV.
You’re doing the ignorant a favor for no real gain. Bitcoin adoption will continue. Bitcoin’s progress remains unstoppable. No amount of downvotes can stop it. And the next giant leap in buying power will just make the anger and denial stronger here - a classic case of cognitive dissonance.
Meth/other drugs in general being purchasable via Bitcoin has value though. You and I might not find that useful or moral, but we shouldn’t pretend the drug market is a small or insignificant one either.
Right but if that's all it can be used for, it will eventually settle into a value below its equivalent dollar amount. That is, the amount of bitcoin you'll get for $100 will buy some fraction of the meth that $100 will buy. It will probably be close to 1:1 but that discount rate will be the only actually important question. The limited utility will function as a capital control, so it will be like Bahamian dollars.
> Right but if that's all it can be used for, it will eventually settle into a value below its equivalent dollar amount
That I agree with actually! Part of its utility in being used for drug purchases comes from the other uses for BTC meaning that theres liquidity. Without that, it's still useful for black market transcations, but less useful than it is today.
I've been saying for years that the sun will eventually turn into a red giant and consume the earth. But every day a same-sized yellow disk rises in the Eastern sky. At what point should I change my mind?
