The stickiness of Twitter isn't just about reliability and handling scale, but also (and in fact mostly) the network effects.
You can't transfer over your content, likes, replies, followers. So even in the best case scenario where Threads picks up and outshines Twitter in the long term, do expect that to be a long term. At least few years.
That is, unless Elon continues on his steady path of catastrophic degradation of the service, which is also possible.
We've seemingly had consensus Twitter is dead since October. Even earlier maybe. And yet people are staying on it. Even all those people who are constantly "quitting it" or tweeting all day that's it's dead.
Therefore beyond the facade of the public discourse, people will keep using Twitter while it works. Anything else they will do to have plan B will be in addition to Twitter, not instead of.
Meaning few did and will abandon their accounts outright, but they will have the link to this and that in their bio.
Do you have an example of that happening before? Every exodus I've seen is just the most vocal bubbles jumping ship for political reasons, but once the dust settles ends up being just a rounding error.
Companies can and do die, but rarely (if ever) because a niche on one end of the political spectrum has a tantrum. Have you considered that what you call consensus might just be within your bubble? I don't know anyone who cares.
You can't transfer over your content, likes, replies, followers. So even in the best case scenario where Threads picks up and outshines Twitter in the long term, do expect that to be a long term. At least few years.
That is, unless Elon continues on his steady path of catastrophic degradation of the service, which is also possible.