In a timeline where ai continues to advance at the current rate and ends up destroying a lot of office jobs I could see the trades becoming much more competitive since the potential labor pool would become much larger.
You’re not right on this. Office workers are not suitable for trade jobs. They have these chicken arms, overweight, spine problems and no endurance. Drilling or digging or crawling under pipes whole day requires good health. There are 4 guys from a team of 11 people I work with that look healthy and fit for such jobs. Others (heavily) obese or not fit after an accident. Or too old.
When I invite my ex colleagues and they offer to help in my under-construction-house it’s very sad to see a young guy lying flat after 60-90 minutes of hard work.
Yeah but that isn't exactly the question - AI will presumably push up the median living standard because a bunch of things get cheaper and nothing gets worse. There are just more options and everything is better organised. A bit like being a king in ancient India vs a barista today. The barista still gets better medical care than the king, even though it is a much lower status role and quite competitive compared to ruling a country.
The real question is "what roles are going to be in a good position to capture value from all the wealth generation?". As far as people selling labour are concerned it could be the trades.
