> However this doesn't reduce consumption, it just shifts the consumption to the developing world
This is true if production levels aren't responsive to prices, but I see no reason that would be the case. Petroleum production levels are known to be quite responsive to upward price movements.
There have been seconds order effects that have led to lower fuel consumption. Cars typically consume less fuel for the same distance driven compared to two decades ago. Part of that is increased fuel economy, part of it is smaller / more efficient cars growing in popularity.
This is true if production levels aren't responsive to prices, but I see no reason that would be the case. Petroleum production levels are known to be quite responsive to upward price movements.