As a regular reminder, BLS employment model significantly extrapolates the broader economy from government employment, and ADP employment numbers reflect the private sector. These two numbers rarely line up because government employment and private sector employment are only loosely correlated. You need to look at both to have a coherent picture.
The longstanding heuristic is that the most important metric of how bad things are is if ADP < BLS. If government employment is declining it will make the BLS estimates look poor no matter what the rest of the economy is doing. I expect ADP will be negative too but it remains to be seen if it is higher or lower than the BLS number.
The longstanding heuristic is that the most important metric of how bad things are is if ADP < BLS. If government employment is declining it will make the BLS estimates look poor no matter what the rest of the economy is doing. I expect ADP will be negative too but it remains to be seen if it is higher or lower than the BLS number.