> We all know that DRAM prices have spiked since production is going to those infernal chatbot training data centers
I know it's very fashionable here to talk about capitalism as some hand-washes-hand big corp organized scam, but if you put that ideology aside for a moment, you contradicted yourself here, I think.
I personally don't like conspiracy-theory-thinking. If I was a DRAM manufacturer and had to choose between servicing a single customer, who orders hundreds of millions worth of my product, or service a very large number of customers who order tiny amounts of the product a piece, then of course I would focus on the large client, because they are easier to service for the expected profit margin. I wouldn't even need to think about advertisement, sales, all that jazz. Looking at it from that perspective, it seems pretty logical to me that a spike in demand from datacenter operators would rise prices dramatically. I struggle to see room for collusion / conspiracy here.
A couple of issues, first there is a history of price collusion (see DRAM price fixing scandal on Wikipedia) and while it may be "logical" from a seller point of view to prefer large orders, this upsets a lot of people and used to be illegal in the United States (it may still be illegal, but it's not enforced)
There is a risk of having a single large customer. As a small food manufacturer we've been warned about it, like to not sell to Walmart even if given the chance.
If one customer buys a majority of your product, your entire business is at their mercy. They can dictate terms, or quit buying from you which can end your business.
So even with RAM - if a company goes all in on RAM for an AI company, what happens when the AI bubble bursts, or the AI company spins up/buys their own RAM factory and quits buying? Did you make enough money to tide you over until you can regain your old customers that have gotten used to not being your customer?
I didn't say "Criminal conspiracy" nor "Capitalism is bad" (although I'm not a fan, and not because of the DRAM price spike). What mean by collusion is that OpenAI apparently agreed with Samsung and Hynix to secure 40% of global DRAM output, for their own exclusive use.
I don't think an above board negotiation to purchase in bulk is correct to refer to as collusion. In lieu of other details it's just a purchase agreement.
Collude is originally a combination of Latin words, isn't it? "co"/"com" which means with, or togther, plus "lude" or "ludere", like means something like "to fight" or "to play" I believe. But - I'm not a native speaker so maybe I should have used another term.
"Collude" carries a strong negative connotation, possibly but not necessarily criminal; certainly within a grey area though and at least somewhat secretive. For above board dealings in the open perhaps "cooperate". If it took opponents by surprise and left them disadvantaged then perhaps "outmaneuvered". If it was open and legal it could nonetheless still be "objectionable" or "callous".
> We all know that DRAM prices have spiked since production is going to those infernal chatbot training data centers
I know it's very fashionable here to talk about capitalism as some hand-washes-hand big corp organized scam, but if you put that ideology aside for a moment, you contradicted yourself here, I think.
I personally don't like conspiracy-theory-thinking. If I was a DRAM manufacturer and had to choose between servicing a single customer, who orders hundreds of millions worth of my product, or service a very large number of customers who order tiny amounts of the product a piece, then of course I would focus on the large client, because they are easier to service for the expected profit margin. I wouldn't even need to think about advertisement, sales, all that jazz. Looking at it from that perspective, it seems pretty logical to me that a spike in demand from datacenter operators would rise prices dramatically. I struggle to see room for collusion / conspiracy here.