It simply doesn't apply. A black swan is a rare event that is almost certain to happen (or at least one of them will) that will destroy vast amounts of wealth.
Black swan events are unpredictable and have enormous impact. Whether they're positive or negative is irrelevant. I'm reading the comments on this page and it seems many people are confused about the term. If you're interested in the connection to business and startups, check out this book: http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/d...
In the very first sentence of the book description, it defines a black swan event: "A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences."
It's used quite a bit to describe startup success. Paul Graham wrote about this in one of his essays as well. I think the term fits perfectly for this blog post.
Black swan events are unpredictable and have enormous impact. Whether they're positive or negative is irrelevant. I'm reading the comments on this page and it seems many people are confused about the term. If you're interested in the connection to business and startups, check out this book: http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/d...
In the very first sentence of the book description, it defines a black swan event: "A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences."
It's used quite a bit to describe startup success. Paul Graham wrote about this in one of his essays as well. I think the term fits perfectly for this blog post.